What's a Realistic Goal for My Next Half Marathon?

by Jay
(New York, NY, USA)

I started running three months ago and followed a beginner marathon training schedule that had me running between 12-20 miles a week and running 4 days a week with a long run on the weekend. I just finished my first half marathon last weekend and was really happy with my results (pace 10:51).

I am thinking of signing up for another half marathon in three months' time and then another one in six months' time and wanted to know what a realistic goal for me would be to aim for in my next race.

Is shooting for 10:00 / miles too aggressive or would 10:30 be more realistic?

I am planning on following a schedule similar to what I did to train for my first half marathon except I was going to push myself to run at a faster pace when training. So my schedule for the next race will be running 4 days a week with miles ranging from 12 to 24 miles. Thoughts?

Answer by Dominique:
Hi there,
Thanks for your half marathon training question.

Oh, and a very clever way of providing your full training schedule to me via that image!

First of all, congratulations on completing your first half marathon.

Well done on your time and good to see you like the half and are back for more.

It's really hard to predict how much you will improve. Rather than shooting for a goal that's too aggressive, or not aggressive enough, I'll offer you some ways you can test yourself so you'll know what your likely time is going to be closer to race day.

I would also like to comment on your plans to run faster in your training.

So we'll cover:

1. Running faster vs running further
2. Ways to determine a realistic half marathon goal

Running Faster vs Running Further

Running faster at training is not necessarily going to be the answer to a faster half marathon. The half marathon is a long way. And to run it well you require a really good endurance, rather than really good speed. So, you will want to train your aerobic system first and foremost. You do this via easy and long runs.

So, rather than running faster, I'd like you to run further. You have been able to build up your weekly mileage to 20 miles. It would be a shame to step back down too far. Don't go back to 12 miles and then rebuild again. Just build from your current level. Add a mile to one or two runs each week and readjust when you feel it's getting too much for you. Check out the increasing mileage safely page for suggestions on how to do this.

That's not to say that running faster is bad. When you are training for a specific distance it is often good to do a bit of running that's just a bit slower, and a bit of running that's just a bit faster than your goal race pace. In case of half marathon prep, tempo running is a fantastic way to build both endurance and speed. Tempo running is the pace you'd be able to do for about an hour, so it's a bit faster than half marathon pace. You can get more adventurous and do intervals at even faster pace, but I'd rather not change too many training variables at once.

For someone in their first year of running you can get a massive, massive amount of improvement out of tempo running and easy / long runs only. Sometimes it may get a little bit boring, so do the occassional fartlek or interval workout to keep things interesting. But if anything, build mileage first. Then add in some speed.

Check out all those links for good workout ideas and a bit of theory behind the reasons why we do runs like that.

Ways to Determine a Realistic Half Marathon Goal

It's near impossible to give you a prediction about your next half marathon and how much faster it may be without having further information. But with a bit of testing of your own abilities and knowing your own limits you can get a really good gauge of what a reasonable half marathon goal might look like.

So, check out a few ways to test yourself and below:

Method 1. Run a 10k race 3-4 weeks before your half marathon. Then plug in the results into the Race Conversion Calculator to work out what your half marathon time can be. Suppose you run a 45 minute 10k. Plug that into the race conversion calculator and it will tell you that a 1:39 half marathon time is within your abilities.

Method 2. Monitor the pace you run when doing tempo runs. That pace + ~20 seconds / mile is roughly your half marathon pace.

Method 3. Run at what you think your half marathon pace will be + ~20 seconds / mile for 20k (12 miles). If you can do that then chances are that you will be able to hit your half marathon race pace.

Method 4. Do the double-six as suggested on the goal pace page. This is a workout in which you run six miles easy, then six miles at your goal pace. If you can do it, you are likely to be able to run your half marathon at that pace.

So, there you have several different ways to work out what pace you'll run your next half marathon.

I have had pretty good results with all of them. My most recent experience was combining the 10k test (first of the list) and the 20k test (3rd on the list), which worked out exactly as planned.

Use the tests in combination with each other. Results should be reasonably aligned.

They do help to give you a reality check. And that's really helpful because there is nothing more painful than running a long distance and going out at too quick a pace! When the tank is empty half way it is a helluva long way to the finish line! Been there, done that way too many times... :)

Hope this helps. And I hope I have been able to convince you to focus on distance more than speed!!

Keep up the running and good luck with your training.
Kind regards,
Dominique