What's a Realistic Goal for My Next Half Marathon?

I started running three months ago and followed a beginner marathon training schedule running between 12-20 miles a week, 4 days a week with a long run on the weekend. I just finished my first half marathon and was really happy with my results (pace 10:51). I am thinking of signing up for another half marathon in three months' time and then another one in six months. What would be a realistic goal to aim for? Is shooting for 10:00/miles too aggressive, or would 10:30 be more realistic? I was going to push myself to run at a faster pace in training, with miles ranging from 12 to 24 miles a week. Thoughts? – Jay, New York, NY, USA

Hi Jay,

Congratulations on finishing your first half marathon — and a solid debut at 10:51 per mile. The fact that you're already signed up for another one tells me you've caught the bug properly.

Here's what we'll cover:

1. Why you should run further, not faster — yet
2. How much improvement is realistic over three and six months
3. Four tests to predict your actual race pace
4. What a sensible training week looks like from here

1. Run Further, Not Faster — Yet

I want to push back gently on the plan to run faster in training. The half marathon is run almost entirely at aerobic pace — your body powers it through the aerobic energy system, not the anaerobic one. That means the single most effective thing you can do to run faster at the half marathon is train your aerobic system. And you do that through easy running and long runs, not by grinding out faster miles in training.

Running faster before your aerobic base is properly developed tends to produce one of two outcomes: you get injured, or you plateau early. In your first year of running, your aerobic system is improving at a rate that will never be matched again — it is responding to almost any consistent running stimulus. The worst thing you can do is interrupt that progress with injury or burnout from too much intensity too soon.

So here's my core advice: don't run faster. Run further. You have built your weekly mileage to 20 miles — that is a good foundation and it would be a shame to drop back to 12 and rebuild from scratch. Keep building from where you are. Add a mile to one or two of your four weekly runs and let the body adjust gradually. Check out the increasing mileage safely page for a sensible week-by-week approach.

That said — running faster is not wrong. The trick is doing it in the right way and in the right proportion. One of your four weekly runs can be a tempo running session: roughly the pace you could hold for about an hour, slightly faster than half marathon pace. Twenty to thirty minutes at tempo effort once a week, alongside three easy or long runs, is the ideal balance for a runner in your first year. Improvement will come — quickly — from this approach alone.

2. How Much Improvement Is Realistic

You are in your first year of running — the period of fastest possible improvement. A 5 to 15 percent pace improvement over three months is genuinely realistic for a beginner who trains consistently. Applied to your 10:51 pace, that puts your three-month half marathon somewhere between roughly 9:13 and 10:18 per mile. Both 10:00 and 10:30 fall comfortably within that range.

Over six months, you could be looking at even more. But here's the honest truth about predicting improvement: I don't know, and neither do you — not yet. Your rate of progress depends on how consistently you train, how your body responds, how your easy runs go, and whether you stay healthy. What I can tell you is that runners who focus on progressive mileage in their first year almost always improve faster than those who focus on pace.

Rather than picking a goal time now and trying to reverse-engineer your training around it, I'd suggest a different approach: build your mileage, add the weekly tempo session, and use the four tests in the next section to set your actual race goal four to six weeks before race day. By that point you'll have real data — not guesswork. That is a far more reliable way to race well than committing to 10:00 or 10:30 right now and hoping for the best.

3. Four Tests to Predict Your Race Pace

These four tests are how you find your realistic half marathon goal — not by guessing, but by running. Use them in the final four to six weeks before each race, and use them in combination. When two or three of them point to the same pace, you have your answer.

Test 1: Run a 10K race. Enter a 10K race three to four weeks before your half marathon and run it flat-out. Then plug the result into the race conversion calculator to get an estimated half marathon time. A race result is more reliable than any training run because the competitive environment brings out a truer effort.

Test 2: Monitor your tempo pace. During your weekly tempo sessions, track the pace you naturally settle at. Add approximately 20 seconds per mile to that tempo pace and you have a close estimate of your half marathon race pace. If your tempo pace is settling at 9:30 per mile, you're likely a 9:50 half marathon runner on current fitness. Watch this number improve week by week — it is one of the most satisfying measures of aerobic progress.

Test 3: Run 20km at goal pace plus 20 seconds. Three to four weeks before your half marathon, run 20 kilometres (approximately 12 miles) at your target race pace plus 20 seconds per mile. If you complete this run feeling controlled and comfortable, you have the endurance to race at that pace. If it falls apart in the final few kilometres, the pace is too aggressive — adjust accordingly. See the goal pace page for how to structure this session.

Test 4: The double-six. Run six miles easy, then run six miles at your target race pace — non-stop. If you can complete the second six miles at goal pace after already running six miles, you are ready to race at that pace for the full half marathon distance. This is the most race-specific of the four tests because it replicates the late-race fatigue you'll face on the day.

4. What a Sensible Training Week Looks Like

Four runs per week is a solid structure — keep it. The trick is getting the balance right between easy running, the long run, and your one quality session. Here is a framework that works well for a runner at your stage:

Monday or Tuesday: tempo session (20-30 minutes at tempo effort, after a 10-minute warm-up jog). Wednesday: easy run of 5-7 miles at genuinely easy pace — conversational, not laboured. Friday or Saturday: easy run of 5-6 miles. Sunday: long run, building progressively from your current long run length. Add roughly one mile to the long run every two weeks, and take a slightly shorter long run every fourth week to allow adaptation.

The easy runs are not filler — they are where your aerobic base actually develops. Many runners run their easy days too hard and arrive at the quality sessions too tired to get the benefit. Easy should feel almost embarrassingly relaxed. If you can hold a proper conversation throughout, you're at the right pace.

Jay, both 10:00 and 10:30 are realistic targets for your three-month half marathon — where you land in that range will depend on your training between now and race day. Run the mileage, add the tempo session, do the four tests, and set your goal from evidence rather than hope. That way, whatever happens on race day, you'll know you prepared properly.

Kind regards,

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