Setting My 10k Goal - How Fast Should I Run My Next 10k?

by Rick T.
(Portland)


I've been running for over a year now and after half a year of training (70 miles/month) I ran 10k in 39:40. Since then I tried a few more races over the summer (in the heat) with my best time a disappointing 40:10.

I also ran 1500m in 4:45.

Since a few months ago I increased my mileage (100 miles/month) and a few weeks ago I ran 1:30:20 half marathon.

What time should I shoot at in my next 10k race?

Thank you for your advice.

Answer by Dominique:
Hi Rick,

Thanks for your question about setting your 10k goal.


setting a 10k running goal

And your half marathon time is very good as well.

Let's cover this question in the following parts:

1. Prediction based on the Race Conversion Calculator
2. Recommended focus for the longer term
3. Prediction based on your running training paces




Prediction based on the Race Conversion Calculator



It's very hard to say which time you should shoot for. I put your times in the Race Conversion Calculator.

Based on your 1.5k time (not a great predictor for a half marathon, keep in mind) you'd be expected to run a 35-36 min 10k and a 1:18hr half marathon.

Based on your 10k time (very good predictor) you'd be expected to run a 1:27hr half marathon.

So, what does this tell us?

For one: you have excellent speed on the shorter distance.

Secondly, you have a lot of potential.

Thirdly, it's tricky for me to say what your recent 1:30 half marathon will translate to for your next 10k!

Recommended Focus for the Longer Term



To further improve your 10k and half marathon times, what needs improving now is your stamina, your endurance. The 10k and the half marathon rely on your endurance, much, much more than your speed.

And you are still working on building that endurance. The step up from 70 miles/month to 100 miles/month is a good start.

Now you want to slowly, but surely, build up that mileage further through lots of easy runs.

For a good 10k race it's also important to do tempo runs and, closer to the race, also interval work.

However, base building is most important. Building your base takes a number of years. During this period I'd expect you to improve year-on-year and it wouldn't surprise if you bring your 10k down into the 38 - 39 min region this year.


base running


Prediction Based on Your Running Training Paces



With goal setting for a race I would always keep in mind that things don't always go your way, e.g. weather is a big factor. I usually set myself a fast goal and a slower goal. The fast one is for great race conditions and the slow one is if things don't go my way.

That way you can still get some satisfaction out of a race, even if you don't make it to your PR because of harsh conditions.

Now, I am conscious we still haven't addressed the goal to set for your next 10k. An approach that does not rely on your recent races is relying on your recent training times through the Running Pace Calculator.


setting a 10k running goal
Now this calculator uses a recent race to calculate your likely running training paces. You can use it in reverse-order as well.

Suppose you know that your current easy pace is about 4:50 min/km and your tempo pace is about 4:00 min/km.

With a bit of trial and error you'll find out that that is equivalent to ~39 minutes for a 10k.

So, you could use that approach. But, little warning, this approach requires total honesty with yourself. You can't start running quicker and quicker and just assume that that translates to faster times.

Hope this helps a bit and gives you some ideas for your next 10k race, but also for how to approach your training for the next few years!

Best of luck.
Kind regards,
Dominique


10k running tips







Join in and write your own page! It's easy to do. How? Simply click here to return to 10k Running Questions.



Like this page:


Share this page:


Like this site:


[?] Subscribe To This Site

XML RSS
follow us in feedly
Add to My Yahoo!

Helpful
Resources

  • Beginner Running Tips

    Are you a beginning runner? Then this is your best starting point. Many tips and running programs on offer, dedicated to you.

  • Running for Weight Loss

    Aiming to lose a few pounds? Get into the Running for Weight Loss section for tips and advice.

  • Running Training

    The Running Training section of the site has got the most articles. It is constantly getting updated with new tips and information. A must-visit if you are serious about improving your running performance.

  • 5k Running Tips

    The 5k is a great distance to run and train for. The great thing is that you can do it quite often and see big improvements.

  • 10k Running Tips

    The 10k is a real challenge. You need to run fast for an uncomfortably long time! Check out this section if you are strong of mind and legs!

  • Marathon Running Tips

    The marathon is a massive challenge. Proper training is so important! Make sure to check out this section if you have got your mind set on the marathon!




What's New?

  1. Running Pace Calculator - Work Out Which Running Training Pace is Right for You

    The running training pace calculator provides you with the right running training paces for you, based on recent race results.

    Read more

  2. Unleash Your Running Potential with Personalized Coaching

    athsauscert1.jpg
    Get some running coaching. Achieve your personal best with a laser targeted running program from Best Running Tips.

    Read more

  3. 18 Months To A Marathon Doable?

    Is it feasible - through hard work and determination of course - for a beginner to be ready for a marathon within 18 months? At this point I'll be

    Read more

  4. How Do I Prepare for My First 5k?

    Hello, I'm a 21 female who is about 30 lbs overweight. I used to do sports in high school but haven't really run in a long time. I want to do a 5k

    Read more

  5. 66yr Old Wants to Repeat Similar Age Related Time for Marathon

    Hello, I am a 66 yr old man/boy wishing to repeat a marathon in time related comparison to my 2h 59m 15s which I did when I was 50. In the interim

    Read more