Is 3h30 a Realistic Goal for My First Marathon?

by Sebastien
(Spain)

Hello there.

My name is Sebastien, I'm 40 years old and I started running 6 months ago. I have never done any sport since I was 12 as I grew up on a boat and later started working as a marine carpenter.

Then the obvious happens, mid-life crisis, you start to worry about your looks, etc...

I'm 1.78 meter and 75 kilos. When I started, I could not run 3km, but I'm very determined and I push my self constantly. I have run 40 times in 6 months and I am now running 3 to 4 times a week.

I have entered a local marathon which will be held four months from now. My PB on a 10k is 47 min and on a half marathon is 1 h 45.

My question is: is 3h30 a realistic target for my marathon?

Many thanks.
Regards.
Sebastien

Answer by Dominique:
Hi Sebastien,
Thanks for your question regarding your marathon time goal.

Well done on starting to run and the accomplishments to date. You have done well in the short time you have been running.

Can I be blunt? Based on your current times, the 3h30 time goal is not yet attainable. I am not saying never. But at this stage it is a very tall order to get to 3hr30. Let's cover off on the following:

1. Why is a 3:30 marathon not yet attainable?
2. Why your first marathon is different
3. How to achieve a 3:30 marathon

Let's get right into it.

Why is a 3:30 Marathon Not Yet Attainable

I plugged your times into the Race Conversion Calculator on this website.

At the moment your 10k time of 47 minutes indicates an ability to run a marathon in 3:36.
And your 1:45 half marathon indicates an ability to run a marathon in 3:38.

That's not far off, but it is not there.

For a 3:30 marathon, you'd like your 10k to be at about or lower than 45 minutes and your half marathon at or lower than 1:40.

So, more work to do. With more training over the next four months you should get fitter and faster. Maybe even to a point at which your 10k and half marathon would be significantly faster than they are now. But.... even if your 10k and half marathon get a lot faster in the next 3-4 months, I am still sceptical about the 3:30 marathon. Why? Well, your first marathon is different....

Why Your First Marathon is Different

You have just started running. 40 runs in six months comes down to running once or twice a week. Now you are running 3-4 times per week. That amount of running is fantastic when you are starting out. 3-4 times per week will help you build your fitness incredibly well. But a fast marathon requires more. The reality of the marathon is.... it is a bloody long way. You need a certain amount of hardness in your legs that is built up over months and months of training.

That's why for many of us, when we do our first marathon, we have a brutal awakening at some point between 15 and 20 miles in (25 - 32km). Your legs feel empty and heavy. Your energy is fading. And you still have a long way to go. You may have come to a site like this, plugged in the numbers, and feel quite confident that you can do a 3:38 marathon based on your 10k and half marathon times. And then discover that during the last 6 miles / 10k everything falls apart and you finish in 4+ hrs.

Holding it together in the last 10k is the hardest part in the marathon. And with less than a year of running under your belt, I don't think you are ready yet to really race a marathon. That's why I'd strongly urge you to aim for a more modest goal. Aim for sub-4 hrs, maybe. Or simply aim to complete it. And be proud of yourself when you do so, it is a big accomplishment.

How to Achieve a 3hr30 Minutes Marathon

You can still aim for a 3:30 marathon. You just need more time. Keep your consistency up over the next 18 months. Get a consistent long run going. Running life is great when every weekend you tick off an easy half marathon or more in your long run. You then have a fantastic base to start your marathon training. Yes, you read that right.

My very strong belief is that when you really want to race a marathon, the training before you start your marathon program is very important. You want to be in the luxury position of having a very solid base and be comfortable with a longer long run.

Because, that's when the magic can happen. When that is your starting point for a say 16-18 week marathon training program, you then have a good opportunity to....

... hit 20 miles multiple times in your cycle...

... run 15-20 milers pretty much every weekend...

.... add quality miles to your long runs (progression runs or fast-finish runs)...

.... do a mid-week long run of at least 90 minutes to support your cardiovascular base building.

.... keep some quality workouts in your running schedule, starting with intervals, moving to tempos and goal pace workouts as time progresses....

And that will set you up well to shoot for a more aggressive time goal. Still, the marathon is a beast and it can take multiple attempts and a number of years of training to really ace the marathon.

Check out the Marathon Training Tips page and supporting pages in the marathon section to learn more about marathon training.

Hope this helps.
Best of luck with your marathon plans and with the mid-life crisis. Stay hungry, stay foolish... :)

Kind regards,
Dominique